Macro Real Estate
UK Private Credit Yields vs. Gilt Volatility: Q3 Strategy Report

UK gilt yields have moved sharply this quarter, prompting renewed scrutiny of the spread private credit lenders command over government debt.
A widening, not a narrowing, spread
Contrary to some market commentary, the spread between senior secured property debt and comparable gilts has widened rather than compressed - a function of tighter underwriting standards among traditional lenders, not weaker demand for the underlying assets.
We expect this dynamic to persist through year-end, favouring disciplined, asset-backed lenders over generalist credit funds.